Preseason Notes [Oct 07-13]

I’ve been tweeting about the preseason over on my twitter account @WatchtheBoxes. Usually providing some quick takes on box scores from the night before, but also during some of the games I’m watching.  As with most preseason stats or advice, you should not get too excited and hastily pull the trigger on anyone. These should be notes that adjust your rankings up or down based on how you feel this will relate to the regular season minutes. A good rule of thumb for standard league top 60 guys, if he is having a good preseason: “GREAT! Feel more confident in drafting him.”  If he’s having a bad preseason: “Ehhh, it’s preseason, I’ll take note, but he should be fine.”

But what about fringe players? For example, John Jenkins and Bobby Portis are looking pretty good so far this season. Does this mean you should start drafting them in all standard leagues?

  • Think about it: they are playing close to 30 minutes per game. You think that they will do that in the regular season?
  • Now look who they are playing against: Jenkins and Portis are up against some deep third teams late in games, including guys who won’t even make a NBA team this year. So those numbers will tone down against superstar talent. Take their good stats as a positive that they can hang in the league. When you see guys who are on the cusp of being drafted in your league, but they aren’t dominating third team players, you probably want to lower them in your rankings
  • Now look at their situation: Portis is behind Pau Gasol, Jo Noah, Niko Mirotic, and Taj Gibson. So while Portis can play, he most likely will get small minutes. He shouldn’t be on your radar unless some serious injuries come through the Bulls frontcourt.  Jenkins on the other hand is a little more interesting. The Mavs need a replacement for Wes Matthews, and Chandler Parsons’s minutes need to go somewhere as well. For the first part of the season, Jenkins’ chances of playing are now likely. He has proved he can handle the Mavs sets and contribute. He could see some large bench minutes or maybe even a start, so for deeper leagues he should now be on your radar.

So without further adieu, a bunch of tweets from last week:

  • Kenny Bazemore in ATL starting 5; trend or just feeling it out? 2-3 from 3
  • Notorious KAT lookin real good for MN (my Towns nickname will catch on)
  • John Jenkins hot shooting night and start for DAL at 2 spot. Watch for now
  • Big Willy Stein is getting a lot of tick to see if he works in that lineup so far. still leaning Koufos. rondo sucks
  • Get off that Justice Winslow ROY nut. That guy will not start over Sweet Lou Deng. He can only hope have Wade’s DNPs (Mark me at Oct 8th for this one)
  • Bulls shooting a lot of 3’s in Hoiberg’s system @ 34.9%. Somehow worse at FG @ 33.8%. Inside/out game needs Pau badly
  • The Drummond/Ilyasova frontcourt will play to each others strengths. Ersan should finally see consistent playing time
  • D. Carroll stats looking simliar in the North as they did in ATL | J Randle should get plenty of mins in LA
  • Paul George is avg. 8.6 3PA/game career avg 36% from behind the arch. A better q? Is he still driving to the basket?
  • Isaiah Thomas is going to get his on this Celtics team. As for the front court battle? Lee then ???
  • Bobby Portis is a damn good rookie. Rebounds everywhere. Makes a lot of hustle plays. Very good low post defender
  • Terrence Ross is shooting 26% this preseason (5-23) in 4 games. Why would he play more mins during the reg. Season?
  • Jrue Holiday is on a min restriction thru Dec.(15mpg), but he looks pretty solid in those mins. Deep league late draft hold for sure. I think he is still on your waivers in standard leagues.
  • Gerald Green is a sneaky good late round pick. Should play high bench mins and replace Wade when he sits. (Y! AVP#137)
  • Errbody love CJ McCollum… Pretty sure you should be loving Al-Farouq Aminu & Meyers Leonard instead.
  • I like Cody Zeller over Hawes for that stretch 4 role in CHA. But I hate myself for having an opinion about this at all.
  • Terrence Jones had his break out game with Motiejunas not playing. I like T Jones’s fantasy value better
  • If everyone is scared of the Marqueef Morris situation in your draft, snag that guy up in the mid-late rounds.
  • Hype up Kenny Faried’s game last night (Oct 13) to all your league-mates. Then don’t draft him.
  • Myles Turner has weirdly played exactly 15 MPG this preseason. 5 rpg and 2bpg. Not sure he breaks 30mpg though.

Now go watch this clip from the Spurs


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